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Nickel – Nickel ore and NPI shows tightness, with stocks at port declining

Date Jan 18 2018 17:56:21Source:SHMET

With regards to NI FP, offers in Shanghai bonded zone keep standing at the range of $300-$350, and so does CIF delivery. The SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb for Russian NI was stable, at 7.77 and that for 3M SHFE/LME at 7.80, equated to a loss of RMB1640 in spot (2%of import tax) and a loss of RMB1744 3M forward.

NPI price rose slightly, while the price of nickel ore remains stable, with a tight supply. Philippine shipments decreased MoM, with its current shipments already showing the biggest impact brought about by the rainy season. Nickel ore stocks at port decreased sharply MoM. The overall transaction in the imports of nickel premium market maintains flat.

Edited by SHMET

Zinc- the appreciation of RMB unfavorable for zinc price

Date Jan 18 2018 17:55:53Source:SHMET

Zinc Premiums in Shanghai bonded, and CIF shanghai saw no change, at $155-$165/mt and $160-$170/mt respectively. Today LME C-3m valued at 40.5B, while the SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb also retreated to around 7.58, the spot import loss to RMB1143/mt and expanding loss slightly in forward market, around RMB1241/mt lost. Custom duty exempt brands, Australian and Korean, still generate quite a loss of RMB1143/mt in spot import market, but may lose RMB935/mt in forward import.

LME zinc c-3m basis is closing at $40.5, with squeeze coming back. In a recent month, RMB appreciation is higher than the market’s expectations. The periodical appreciation of RMB remains stable and the market is expected to still have a space for appreciation within the year. A sharp appreciation of RMB is unfavorable for economy and may aggravate SHFE zinc’s downward pressure. There is no improvement of transaction in the spot market. Zinc premium market enquiries are light, with the transactions being general.

                                                                                                                

 

Edited by SHMET

Aluminum – aluminum fundamentals poor

Date Jan 18 2018 17:55:30Source:SHMET

Traders reported that spot premiums CIF shanghai remained at level $95-$115 as usual, so did the physical warrants. LME C-3m valued edged to $0.5B. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb flattened out at 6.57, suggesting importing may lose around RMB3013/mt in spot market and RMB2788/mt in forward market.

On the supply side, supply of imported bauxite increased, but alumina prices are stable, supporting the cost. However, the domestic electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are still poor. On the demand side, it maintains a pattern of a weak stability, with enterprises purchasing on-demand. Electrolytic aluminum market sentiment is still depressed, with traders keeping stepping aside.

 

Edited by SHMET

Copper – reluctance to sell spot and purchasing at low price

Date Jan 18 2018 17:54:59Source:SHMET

Premiums for CIF Shanghai stood at $60-$70while that for shanghai bonded warehouse flatted at $65-$75, a continuing component of previous re-stabilization. LME C-3m valued was $39.75C. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb stayed steadily at around 7.62, with an import loss of RMB142/mt, whilst 3M SHFE/LME arb may lose RMB 307/mt, with ratio of 7.61.

According to the wolrd metal statistics bureau, the shortage of copper was 118,700 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2017. As the market demand gradually weakened, most of cargo holders insist on selling with a high price, with obvious reluctance to sell. Some traders continue adjusting price, with few sales. The downstream are making active enquiries on the lower price and the overall atmosphere of purchasing at low price is significantly improved.Traders make general inquiries in the copper imports market and the market transaction is relatively stable due to the fact that there is a downward trend as financing activity weakens premium.

 

Edited by SHMET

Nickel – nickel ore and NPI supply are tight, with import losses expanded

Date Jan 17 2018 16:21:35Source:SHMET

With regards to NI FP, offers in Shanghai bonded zone keep standing at the range of $300-$350, and so does CIF delivery. The SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb for Russian NI was stable, at 7.77 and that for 3M SHFE/LME at 7.77, equated to a loss of RMB1434 in spot (2%of import tax) and a loss of RMB1865 3M forward.

NI FP import losses remain large, with current nickel ore and NPI supply being rather tight. However, Indonesian nickel ore offer has been raised on a FOB basis, and smelters may increase their purchase of nickel ore in Indonesia, with nickel ore and NPI tightness being  hard to boost nickel price. The overall transaction in the imports of nickel premium market maintains flat.

Edited by SHMET
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