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Aluminum - SHMET Import Market Briefing

Date Nov 30 2017 16:31:33Source:SHMET

Traders reported that spot premiums CIF shanghai remained at level $95-$115 as usual, so did the physical warrants. LME C-3m valued edged to $14.5C. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb flattened out at 6.99, suggesting importing may lose around RMB2433/mt in spot market and RMB2363/mt in forward market.   

China's imports of bauxite ore fell 31.9% in October from the previous month and the market was clouded by a depressed demand, with the demand in downstream enterprises being weak. The real estate work was significantly restricted in winter, and the production and sales growth of the auto industry declined sharply in October. The production rate of aluminum processing enterprises was generally lower than 70%. Therefore, aluminum price continued to fall and the import loss expanded. Electrolytic aluminum market sentiment is still depressed and the trading volumes have no obvious increase, with traders keeping stepping aside.   

 

 

Edited by SHMET

Copper - SHMET Import Market Briefing

Date Nov 30 2017 16:30:41Source:SHMET

Premiums for CIF Shanghai stood at $65-$80while that for shanghai bonded warehouse flatted at $70-$85, a continuing component of previous re-stabilization. LME C-3m valued was $29.75C. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb stayed steadily at around 7.81, with an import loss of RMB122/mt, whilst 3M SHFE/LME arb may lose RMB661/mt, with ratio of 7.83.

LME copper inventories continued to fall sharply overnight to 191725. The copper output in Chile was 512,730 tonnes, up 13.3% from the same period a year earlier. Copper price have continued to fall due to weak consumption. An increase in domestic spot import cargoes lead to an increase in domestic inventory, with the market supply being abundant. Traders entered into the long-term order negotiation period and the market transaction is more stable.

 

Edited by SHMET

Nickel - SHMET Import Market Briefing

Date Nov 29 2017 16:39:25Source:SHMET

With regards to NI FP, offers in Shanghai bonded zone keep standing at the range of $300-$360, and so does CIF delivery. The SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb for Russian NI was stable, at 8.06and that for 3M SHFE/LME at 8.00, equated to a loss of RMB116/mt in spot and a loss of RMB1124/mt 3M forward.

The Indonesian government has lifted a ban on the export of raw ore, making the country’s more nickel ore exported to international markets. Indonesia's Antam plans to increase its nickel ore sales by 162% in 2018, with an increase in Indonesian nickel supply causing a market surplus concern. The import of nickel ore decreased sharply by 38% MoM to 3.50 million tones. The overall transaction maintains flat in the nickel premium market.                   Edited by SHMET

Zinc - SHMET Import Market Briefing

Date Nov 29 2017 16:38:47Source:SHMET

Zinc Premiums in Shanghai bonded and CIF shanghai saw no change, at $155-$165/mt and $160-$170/mt respectively. Today LME C-3m valued at $20B high while the SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb also retreated to around 7.90, the spot import loss to RMB1096/mt and expanding loss slightly in forward market, around RMB1425/mt lost. Custom duty exempt brands, Australian and Korean, still generate quite a loss of RMB799/mt in spot import market, but may lose RMB1127/mt in forward import.

Noranda's zinc smelter in Canada recently has announced to resume production. Noranda will sign a five-year processing fee agreement with Glencore and the processing fee at the beginning of the year 2017 dropped to historic lows, which may affect the company's performance. Zinc shortage in 2018 may be eased. There are many customers’ inquiries in the market, with transactions being general.

 

Edited by SHMET

Aluminum - SHMET Import Market Briefing

Date Nov 29 2017 16:38:03Source:SHMET

Traders reported that spot premiums CIF shanghai remained at level $95-$115 as usual, so did the physical warrants. LME C-3m valued edged to $14.25C. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb flattened out at 6.91, suggesting importing may lose around RMB2614/mt in spot market and RMB2516/mt in forward market.   

Recently, the small drop in aluminum inventory is related to the traffic tensions in xinjiang province, but the absolute base of inventory is still high, leaving the spot being not tight. Both production in off-peak season and consumption are still lower than expected. Therefore, aluminum price continued to fall and the import loss expanded. Electrolytic aluminum market sentiment is still depressed and the trading volumes have no obvious increase, with traders keeping stepping aside.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by SHMET