Editorial

【Ni Morning】Dollar weakens and nickel price recovered

Date Sep 19 2018 10:07:24Source:SHMET
On Tuesday night, markets shrugged off a new round of tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China, and the dollar fell and nonferrous metals rallied across the board. The closing price of LME nickel was 12360 US dollars, up 85 US dollars, an increase of 0.69%. The most traded contract of SHFE nickel closed at 102200 yuan, up 300 yuan, an increase of 0.29%. In terms of spot, Jinchuan nickel supply is still tight, and the premium is maintained at a high level. The supply of imported cargoes is relatively loose, the premium of imported supplies remains stable, the downstream enterprises purchase at low level, the spot transaction is general, the short-term nickel price is expected to maintain weak fluctuations.Edited by SHMET

【Cu Morning】Macro risks weaken, spot market is euphoric

Date Sep 19 2018 09:45:40Source:SHMET

LME copper opened at $5858 mt on the previous trading day. The price took all the way up along with spot markert. LME copper peaked at $6118.5/mt, bottomed at $5855/mt and closed at $6091/mt.

                     

SHFE copper main contracts (1811) opened at49290 yuan/t on the previous trading day. At last, it peaked at 49730 yuan/t, bottomed at 49210 yuan/t and closed at 49630 yuan/t.

 

The market was presented with red upper shadow with euphoric mood. Domestic night trading saw gap higher opening. Aside from weakened macro risks, tight spot market also well backed up market price.

Edited by SHMET

【Al Morning】Downstream purchased on demand and SHFE aluminum may continue to be in weak pattern

Date Sep 19 2018 09:32:04Source:SHMET

LME aluminum 3m fluctuated violently yesterday, with the highest level of 2056.5 dollar/ton, before turning downward probing the low level of 2024 dollar/ton. It closed at 2029 dollar/ton, falling 4.5 dollar or 0.22%.

 

SHFE aluminum rose after plunging during the daytime. It opened slightly above 14520yuan/ton at night trading and soon fluctuated downward with a lowest level of 14435 yuan/ton. It fell 0.07% and closed at 14455yuan/ton, with turnover 78216 lots and positions 283204 lots. Positions are reduced by 686 lots, with a capital flow of 6.45 million yuan and precipitation of 1.433 billion yuan.

 

For domestic spot market, aluminum ingot declined further yesterday. Though there were lots of inquiries, transactions were general. Middlemen preferred to remain on the sideline and the downstream purchased on demand.

 

Given Shandong self-owned electric cross-subsidies and firm price of alumina and pre-baked anode, cost-end support of aluminum ingot continues. However, considering the limited production during the heating season and the signs of easing US sanctions on Russian aluminum, SHFE aluminum may continue to be weak in the short term. Macro factors and latest trend of important events overseas are needed to be followed.

Edited by SHMET

【Al Daily】Aluminum ingot spot price continued to fall and SHFE aluminum declined to a new one-month low

Date Sep 18 2018 17:30:57Source:SHMET

Spot Market

Shanghai spot aluminum ingot is quoted at 14410-14450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with contango 20 yuan/ton to backwardation 20 yuan/ton against 1810 contract. Aluminum ingot spot price slid further from yesterday and downstream demand has not improved yet. Middlemen stood aside. Though inquires happened now and then, overall transaction was general.

 

Comments from SHMET

After falling to periodic low of 2007 USD/ton, LME aluminum fluctuated upward during Asian trading hours today. SHFE aluminum main 1811 contract fluctuated on the weak at night trading, reaching a one-month low within the day.

 

The US announced imposing tariffs on $200billion of Chinese products, putting the trade friction back in the spotlight. In addition, sources said that the US Treasury Department earlier announced that Rusal was still on the sanctions list, but it still allowed customers to sign new contracts with Rusal. At Hong Kong market, Rusal rose as much as 7% in early trading. Rumours last week that Rusal would cut production because of sanctions sent the LME’s three-month intraday price soaring.

 

Overall, the pattern of tight supply of the domestic bauxite and overseas aluminum oxide continued. In addition, the cross-subsidy of self-owned power plant in Shandong is expected to increase the cost of aluminum by 600-700 yuan, cost-end support of aluminum ingot continues to exist. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of strike at Alcoa Australia, sanctions on Rusal and uncertain timing of resumption of full production in Norsk Hydro has been on the nerves of the aluminum market. At present, domestic aluminum ingots spot market is of abundant supply and the downstream demand has not yet shown improvement. SHFE aluminum may run on the weak in the short term. Macro market and uncertainties overseas are needed to be followed.

Edited by SHMET

【Ni Daily】Bearish sentiment gradually released, and LME nickel opened lower and trended higher

Date Sep 18 2018 17:20:44Source:SHMET

Spot market

SHFE spot nickel price today: 101800-108000 yuan / tonne, down RMB500/ton. The premium for Jinchuan spot nickel is RMB6500/tonne compared with Wuxi 1810 contract, RMB6370/tonne compared with SHFE dominant 1811 contracts. Spot Russian nickel has a premium of RMB300/ton compared with Wuxi 1810 contracts, and RMB170 compared with SHFE nickel dominant 1811 contracts. Jinchuan electrolytic nickel plates are quoted in shanghai at 108000 yuan/tonne, down RMB400/ton from the previous trading day.

 

Today, the spot nickel price is relatively resistant, and the nickel warrants have rebounded yesterday. The main reason is that the spot market has sufficient supply and the spot is made into warrants. The market supply of Jinchuan nickel is tight, the premium is maintained at a high level, and the low-level Russian nickel attracts some transactions, with the market demand being general. 


 

SHMET comments:  

On the fundamentals, LME nickel stocks continued to decline, the imported cargoes in domestic spot market is adequate, SHFE nickel warrants decline slowed down. The price of nickel ore continued to be stable, the price of ferronickel was stable and weak, and the supply of ferronickel was expected to increase. At present, the supply of stainless steel in the market is relatively low. Today, the hot rolling price of Foshan 304 is generally raised by 50 yuan/ton. The Wuxi area is basically flat. The typhoon “Mangosteen” has caused most of the stainless steel plants in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions to stop production, especially the ferronickel stainless steel plant in Yangjiang area is completely shut down. It is expected that the Influence is lasting about 2-3 days. In addition, with the recent stabilization of nickel prices, the stainless steel market has improved.


On the whole, the macro-trade war risk is not relieved in the short term, the nickel market tends to be loose, and the nickel price is expected to remain weak.

 

 


Edited by SHMET