Editorial

【Zn Morning】Domestic and foreign market slightly rested and zinc price may fluctuate

Date Sep 26 2018 09:29:48Source:SHMET

Overnight LME zinc oscillated, and opening price was 2515 US dollars / ton, sharply down to 2481.5 US dollars / ton in the morning, and then continued to fluctuate upward during the day. The highest price was 2550 US dollars / ton, fell again yesterday night, and the final close was at 2516 US dollars / ton, down $5 from the closing price of a last trading day, a drop of 0.12%.

 

Yesterday, the SHFE zinc fell back after a rise, the opening price was 21,795 yuan / ton, and then rose to 21,909 yuan / ton. It gave out all the gains afterwards and then continued to fluctuate and fall, closing at 21,590 yuan / ton, down $35 from the previous settlement price, a decrease of 0.16%.

 

After the continuous rise in zinc prices in the past few days, yesterday's and today's gains were slightly rested. It is expected that zinc prices will be dominated by fluctuations.

Edited by SHMET

【Cu Morning】De-inventory is obvious, price is supported by fundamentals in short term

Date Sep 26 2018 09:28:00Source:SHMET

LME copper opened at $6292.5 mt on the previous trading day. After the sharp drop in the morning, the price took all the way up and recovered most drop till night. LME copper peaked at $6329/mt, bottomed at $6213/mt and closed at $6280.5/mt.

                     

SHFE copper main contracts (1811) opened at 50710 yuan/t on the previous trading day. After the opening, the price vibrated in a narrow range bound and failed to continue keeping pushing up. At last, it peaked at 508200 yuan/t, bottomed at 50400 yuan/t and closed at 505400 yuan/t with drop of 0.22%.  

 

As the inventory keeps shrinking, recent consumption is in boom season. Copper price is unlikely to fall anytime soon.

Edited by SHMET

【Al Morning】LME aluminum rose during European trading hours and SHFE aluminum may fluctuate

Date Sep 26 2018 09:26:23Source:SHMET

Ahead of the Fed decision, due to be released at 2am tomorrow (Beijing time), investors trade cautiously, as most of them expecting a higher probability of a rate hike. The dollar index was traded near 94 in recent days, after a 2 and a half month low. LME aluminum opened at 2047.5 dollar/ton and went downward during Asian trading hours, reaching the lowest level of 2033.5 dollar/ton. It surged during European trading hours and touched the highest level of 2073.5 dollar/ton. Closed at 2064.5 dollar/ton, it rose 20.5 dollar or 1%.

 

SHFE aluminum main 1811 contract fluctuated downward in the first day after holiday. It opened slightly higher at night trading yesterday and vibrated near 14640 yuan/ton. It closed at 14640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.14%. SHFE aluminum 1810 contract also vibrated yesterday, with futures price hovered near 14600 yuan/ton. Cost-end support of SHFE aluminum continues, but futures lack of upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate today and needs more directional signal from macro factor.

Edited by SHMET

【Ni Daily】 SHFE nickel fluctuated to rise, with spot premium remaining firm

Date Sep 25 2018 17:22:54Source:SHMET

Spot market

SHFE spot nickel price today: 105400-111600 yuan / tonne, up RMB1400/ton. The premium for Jinchuan spot nickel is RMB6500/tonne compared with Wuxi 1810 contract, RMB6480/tonne compared with SHFE most-traded 1811 contracts. Spot Russian nickel has a premium of RMB300/ton compared with Wuxi 1810 contracts, and has a premium of RMB280 compared with SHFE nickel most traded 1811 contracts. Jinchuan electrolytic nickel plates are quoted in shanghai at 111800 yuan/tonne, up 1300 yuan/ ton from the previous trading day. Today, the spot nickel price rose slightly and Jinchuan is closing its maintenance, but still did not resume the shipment.  The market bearish sentiment gradually released and short term nickel price may fluctuate with strength. Jinchuan nickel supply on the market continued to be tight and the premium is maintained at a high level. The impact of tax reduction news on the spot market is temporarily small, with the market transaction being flat. 


SHMET comments:  

The fundamentals are intertwined with longs and shorts, the proportion of scrap stainless steel use is increased, and the expected increase in production of ferronickel, or reduce the current gap of primary nickel. However, refined nickel inventory continued to decline, and nickel price support remains. In September, there were signs of improvement in stainless steel market demand, but the magnitude was not as expected. As the preparation of stocks before the National day Festival drew to a close, the terminal demand weakened.

 

On the whole, trade friction shows no signs of cooling and market confidence is insufficient, with the increase in ferronickel production and weak demand for stainless steel drag, nickel prices still run mainly by fluctuations. 


Edited by SHMET

【Al Daily】Aluminum ingots contango expanded and SHFE aluminum pulled back today

Date Sep 25 2018 17:14:08Source:SHMET

Spot Market

Shanghai spot aluminum ingot is quoted at 14540-14580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton, with contango 50 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton against 1810 contract. SHFE aluminum 1810 contract fell all the way down and contango quoted by cargo holders has expanded. Spot price of aluminum ingots was down more than 100 yuan from last Friday. Currently, downstream demand has no obvious improvements and market transaction performance is general.

 

Comments from SHMET

After rebounding for two consecutive days, LME aluminum was blocked at high level on Monday. The futures plunged then, and fell further during Asian trading hours today. Last Friday, the Treasury said it had extended the deadline for investors to divest EN+ and Rusal bonds, equity and other assets until November 12. SHFE aluminum main 1811 contract opened lower and fluctuated downward today and the futures reached the lowest level of 14570 yuan/ton, down within 1%.

 

At present, aluminum ingots spot market has ample supply and the “Golden September and Silver October” has not brought significant improvements to aluminum ingots downstream demand. Most traders reflect that market transaction is general. Cost-end alumina prices are high but there is little rising space. Overall, SHFE aluminum cost-end support will continue, but futures are lack of upward momentum, with pulling-back in the short term. Macro factors, strikes at Alcoa Australia and sanctions on Rusal should be followed.

Edited by SHMET
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