Editorial

Aluminum – Import arb is still in a loss, with market transaction having no improvement

Date Apr 24 2018 15:03:24Source:SHMET

Traders reported that spot premiums CIF shanghai remained at level $120-$140 as usual, so did the physical warrants. LME C-3m valued edged to $4B. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb flattened out at 6.36, suggesting importing may lose around RMB3245/mt in spot market and RMB3155/mt in forward market.

 

Rusal event continues to ease, and LME Aluminum dived sharply in the evening, setting the biggest one-day drop in nearly eight years. In addition, The U.S. dollar index has been hit hard, and supply has resumed, all of which suppressed the price of aluminum. Aluminum ingot market purchase is mostly choosing domestic stocks. Due to the continuous loss in import arbitrage, it is inevitable that the import volume will be affected and the recent market transactions have not improved significantly.

 

Edited by SHMET

Copper – There is no active purchase in the market, with premium being high

Date Apr 24 2018 15:02:49Source:SHMET

Premiums for CIF in Shanghai stood at $65-$85, while that for shanghai bonded warehouse flatted at $70-$85. LME C-3m valued was $45C. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb stayed steadily at around 7.45, with a spot import gain of RMB240/mt, whilst 3M SHFE/LME arb may have a gain of about RMB 25 /mt, with ratio of 7.46.

 

LME copper price fell slightly at night, still not standing on the 7000 mark. In the long run, the shortage of scrap copper supply will provide some support for copper prices. There is no active purchase in the market, with the overall activity being limited. Some traders are mainly doing inquiries in the market and the actual trading volumes are not large. However, big traders still enjoy a steady shipment, with small traders significantly reducing their purchase. 

 

 

Edited by SHMET

Nickel – Actual trading price having a slight reduction space

Date Apr 23 2018 15:08:54Source:SHMET

With regards to NI FP, offers in Shanghai bonded zone keep standing at the range of $180-$210, so is premiums for CIF. The SHFE Spot/LME 3M was at 7.12 and that for 3M SHFE/LME 3M at 7.14. Russian Ni registered a loss of RMB6445 in spot (2%of import tax) and a loss of RMB6515 3M forward.

 

Premium for CIF shanghai Russian nickel B/L offer is at around $280/tonne, with a few offers for arrivals at the ports, mainly concentrated in mid-June. Some traders provide delivery to designated port at designated deliver dates. Market overall transaction is weak, with actual trading price having a slight reduction space and the trading volumes being small.

Edited by SHMET

Zinc – Premium holding firm, with the downstream purchase being limited

Date Apr 23 2018 15:08:26Source:SHMET

Zinc Premiums in Shanghai bonded warehouse quoted at $135-$145/mt and CIF shanghai stood at $145-$155/mt. Today LME C-3m valued at $8C, while the SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb also retreated to around 7.65, the spot import loss to RMB360/mt and expanding loss slightly in forward market, around RMB865/mt lost. Custom duty exempt brands, Australian and Korean, still generate quite a loss of RMB75/mt in spot import market, but it may lose RMB635/mt in forward import.

 

Import arb has recovered and downstream buyers do not choose import through customs declaration. At present, traders in the market are less willing to deliver goods at low prices, with most of the quotations for zinc ingots are stuck at around $153/tonne. However, the downstream purchase demand is also rare and the transaction is not active.

 

Edited by SHMET

Aluminum – Import losses widened and common trade depressed

Date Apr 23 2018 15:07:46Source:SHMET

Traders reported that spot premiums CIF shanghai remained at level $120-$140 as usual, so did the physical warrants. LME C-3m valued edged to $15B. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb flattened out at 5.95, suggesting importing may lose around RMB4442/mt in spot market and RMB4245/mt in forward market.

 

Premium continues to be high and the import loss widened again, with downstream enterprises being unable to import aluminum ingots and the market remaining a pattern of having a price but no sales. Recently, some traders have a strong intention to buy at low prices, with some of them having a strong sentiment of stepping aside from the time being.

 

Edited by SHMET
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