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Nickel – LME nickel price falling back after rise, with stainless steel price being stable

Date Jan 11 2018 17:58:47Source:SHMET

With regards to NI FP, offers in Shanghai bonded zone keep standing at the range of $300-$350, and so does CIF delivery. The SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb for Russian NI was stable, at 7.80 and that for 3M SHFE/LME at 7.88, equated to a loss of RMB2423 in spot (2%of import tax) and a loss of RMB1955 3M forward.

Yesterday, LME nickel was turning higher and SHFE nickel opened with a high price, showing an obvious money game. The nickel briquette consumption in Taiwan is good and import profit and loss has fully reflected the cost of the increased import tax. import showed a loss of about 2000RMB.  Stainless steel price is stable and not affected by the nickel price. The overall transaction in the imports of nickel premium market maintains flat.

Edited by SHMET

Zinc- zinc concentrate TC/RCs trending lower, with consumption seeing no improvement

Date Jan 11 2018 17:58:16Source:SHMET

Zinc Premiums in Shanghai bonded, and CIF shanghai saw no change, at $155-$165/mt and $160-$170/mt respectively. Today LME C-3m valued at 22.25B, while the SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb also retreated to around 7.72, the spot import loss to RMB1309/mt and expanding loss slightly in forward market, around RMB1206/mt lost. Custom duty exempt brands, Australian and Korean, still generate quite a loss of RMB1001/mt in spot import market, but may lose RMB898/mt in forward import.

LME zinc c-3m basis is closing at $22.25. LME stocks fell quickly, beware of that there will be a squeeze again. The current zinc price is at a historical high level and zinc concentrate TC/RCs still has a downward trend, indicating the tightness of zinc concentrate is increased. However, the downstream consumption of zinc ingot has been not improved and the inventory accumulation has been slow. Zinc premium market enquiries are light, with the transactions being general.

       Edited by SHMET

Aluminum – most smelters stop losses and inventory pressure difficult to decline in winter

Date Jan 11 2018 17:57:50Source:SHMET

Traders reported that spot premiums CIF shanghai remained at level $95-$115 as usual, so did the physical warrants. LME C-3m valued edged to $14.75C. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb flattened out at 6.81, suggesting importing may lose around RMB2690/mt in spot market and RMB2591/mt in forward market.

With the increase of aluminum price, the full cost of electrolytic aluminum will help the smelters stop losses and make profits and the production cutbacks will be eased. Coupled with the impact of bad weather in winter, inventory pressure is difficult to release. Electrolytic aluminum market sentiment is still depressed, with traders keeping stepping aside.

 

                              Edited by SHMET

Copper – macro data not good, with copper price volatile at high level

Date Jan 11 2018 17:57:23Source:SHMET

Premiums for CIF Shanghai stood at $65-$75while that for shanghai bonded warehouse flatted at $70-$83, a continuing component of previous re-stabilization. LME C-3m valued was $40.25C. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb stayed steadily at around 7.67, with an import loss of RMB447/mt, whilst 3M SHFE/LME arb may lose RMB 621/mt, with ratio of 7.67.

Data from the bureau of statistics showed the general performance of inflation data in December, among which, CPI in December was lower than expected YoY and it was below 2% for 11th consecutive months. This reflects that economy further contracted at the end of the year. Coupled with weak downstream consumption, prices are difficult to maintain at current high levels. Traders make general inquiries in the copper imports market and the market transaction is relatively stable due to the fact that there is a downward trend as financing activity weakens premium.

 

Edited by SHMET

Nickel – SHFE warrants increase, with NPI having a good trend

Date Jan 10 2018 17:30:56Source:SHMET

With regards to NI FP, offers in Shanghai bonded zone keep standing at the range of $300-$350, and so does CIF delivery. The SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb for Russian NI was stable, at 7.84 and that for 3M SHFE/LME at 7.91, equated to a loss of RMB2107 in spot (2%of import tax) and a loss of RMB1748 3M forward.

Yesterday, SHFE nickel warrants increased by 300 tonnes and the overall trend is up in recent times, which is likely to be related with an increase in imports. NPI has a good trend and squeezes stainless steel profits. The overall transaction in the imports of nickel premium market maintains flat. 

Edited by SHMET
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