Editorial

【Ni Daily】 Macro sentiment slightly improved and nickel price may run with a strong fluctuation

Date Sep 20 2018 16:59:56Source:SHMET

Spot market

SHFE spot nickel price today: 103300-109500 yuan / tonne, up RMB950/ton. The premium for Jinchuan spot nickel is RMB6500/tonne compared with Wuxi 1810 contract, RMB6230/tonne compared with SHFE most-traded 1811 contracts. Spot Russian nickel has a premium of RMB400/ton compared with Wuxi 1810 contracts, and has a discount of RMB30 compared with SHFE nickel most traded 1811 contracts. Jinchuan electrolytic nickel plates are quoted in shanghai at 109500 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. Today, the spot nickel price rose slightly, and the quotation of traders’ spot premium is basically stable. Spot market supply is sufficient and most of the downstream replenish the stocks according to their needs. The market bearish sentiment gradually released and short term nickel price may fluctuate with strength.  


SHMET comments:  

The fundamentals are intertwined with longs and shorts, and there is no obvious change. The increase in the proportion of used stainless steel and the expected increase in ferronickel will reduce the current gap in primary nickel. In addition, the import window has been open for a long time, and the continuous flow of imported goods has also dragged down the price of nickel. However, refined nickel inventories continue to fall and the nickel price support remains. In terms of stainless steel, today's stainless steel companies’ indicated offer has a mixed trend, steel mills smelting profits are still acceptable. Spot supply is less, and stainless steel market performance is stronger.

On the whole, the macro bearish sentiment has been released, and the nickel price may rebound in the near future, but the above pressure remains, and the fluctuation is mainly for the time being. 


Edited by SHMET

【Cu Daily】Spot copper quotation is revised down, SHFE copper accelerating dropping after noon

Date Sep 20 2018 16:32:19Source:SHMET

Spot Market

 

Shanghai spot copper is quoted at 49850-49980 yuan/t, down 85 yuan/t. 1810 contract is at 200b-260b yuan/t. Spot market resource is ample today. Traders make deliveries with lower price. Good grade copper opens at 330b while takes all the way down to 200b. Middlemen are active in receiving shipments. Overall, market transactions are not bad.

 

Comments from SHMET

 

LME inventory stops earlier continuous drop and increases 3450 tons or 1.6%, recording the largest growth rate of recent three months. According to the latest statistics released by WBMS, during the first seven months of this year, global copper supply saw surplus of 17100 tons.


LME copper at Asia trading period headed down after going up, hovering around the peak point of recent three weeks. SHFE copper 1811 contract ran in a range bound in the morning, while head down after noon. It touched 49230 yuan/t and closed slightly lower.  

Edited by SHMET

Ni – Spot premium was stable, with imported cargoes being relatively sufficient

Date Sep 20 2018 14:45:23Source:SHMET

With regards to NI FP, offers in Shanghai bonded zone keep standing at the range of $220-$280, and the premiums for CIF is at the range of $200-$280 . The SHFE Spot/LME 3M was at 8.30 and that for 3M SHFE/LME 3M at 8.23. Russian Ni registered an import profit of RMB208/ton in spot (2%of import tax) and a loss of 1057RMB 3M forward.

 

Nickel fluctuation was strong, and the Russian nickel premium in spot nickel market was basically stable. The spot import of refined nickel maintained a small profit. The supply of imported goods in the spot market is sufficient, the downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, and the market transaction is flat.

Edited by SHMET

Zn – LME spot discount narrowed, with import profit slightly expanded

Date Sep 20 2018 14:44:28Source:SHMET

Zinc Premiums in Shanghai bonded warehouse quoted at $330-$360/mt and CIF shanghai stood at $320-$350/mt, up $65 from the last trading day. SHFE /LME spot zinc price ration is at 9.17. Today LME C-3m rose 17.5C, the spot zinc ingot import profit is RMB15/mt in the current month and 3m import loss in forward market is around RMB1197/mt lost. Custom duty exempt brands, Australian and Korean had a profit of RMB146/mt in spot import market, but it loses RMB1215mt in forward import.

 

Today, zinc prices continued to rise, domestic brands in the domestic spot market rose significantly, duty-free brand imports premium had a smaller decline, and general imported brand zinc ingot discount slightly expanded. The spread between domestic and imported brands narrowed. Foreign trade premium continues to be high, although imported zinc price earnings expanded than yesterday, but not as large as the previous level of profitability.

 

 

 

Edited by SHMET

Cu-Premium remains high, import profit is higher than yesterday

Date Sep 20 2018 14:30:51Source:SHMET

Premiums for CIF in Shanghai held at $105-$120/mt, and that for Shanghai bonded warehouse was at $110-$130/mt. SHFE Spot/LME 3M arb was at 8.19, whilst 3M SHFE/3M LME arb came to 8.07. LME C-3m valued was $24.50C, with a spot import gain of around RMB410/mt and a loss in forward market of about RMB564/mt.

 

Foreign trade spot continues the tight pattern and premium remains high. SHFE/LME hikes up slightly today. Spot imported copper profit is registered higher than yesterday.

Edited by SHMET
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