ILZSG Forecasts Lead Market Outlook for 2018 and 2019

Date 10/9/2018 3:20:37 PM Source: SHMET

The 63rd session of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) Committee held recently in Lisbon, Portugal reviewed the current trends and issued in global lead market. It also forecast lead market outlook for 2018 and 2019.

According to ILZSG, the global demand for refined lead metal is expected to see marginal increase by 0.2% to 11.71 million tonnes in 2018. The demand is expected to rise further by 0.7% to 11.79 million tonnes next year. The slower growth in the automotive sector is likely to lead to marginal 0.6% drop in Chinese apparent usage this year. The usage is predicted to drop further by 1.3% in 2019. Meantime, the U.S. usage will see reduction of 0.6% in 2018. However, the usage is likely to see 2.5% jump in 2019.

The world lead mine supply is likely to total 4.58 million tonnes in 2018, marginally lower by 0.4% over the previous year. On the other hand, it is expected to see notable increase by 4.1% to total 4.77 million tonnes in 2019. The jump in lead concentrate output in Cuba and India are likely to be offset by declines in Australia, China, Kazakhstan and the U.S. Meantime, the world refined lead metal production is expected to report rises of 0.4% and 2.2% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

In essence, the demand for refined lead metal will exceed supply by 123kt in 2018. In its earlier report, ILZSG had predicted a deficit of 17kt for the current year. The revision is mainly on account of lower than expected metal output from China and Australia. For 2019, the study group forecasts surplus of 50kt.