China's new home price growth cools in July - statistics bureau

Date Aug 18 2017 16:41:47

By Yawen Chen and Ryan Woo

    BEIJING, Aug 18 (Reuters) - China's home price growth slowed in July, with Beijing  declining for a second straight month, reinforcing expectations that property price growth may stagnate over the course of the year.  

    Government restrictions to keep prices in check weighed on larger cities, with July showing the slowest growth since August 2016, while smaller centres pulled back but remained robust.

    Policymakers have prioritised stabilising the property market ahead of an autumn leadership reshuffle, stressing the need to avoid dramatic price fluctuations that could threaten the financial system and harm social stability.

    As China's home price rises have generally been moderating and sales are slowing, analysts do not see a major risk of a sharp price fall or crash, given the strength of underlying housing demand. 

     "We need the administrative measures in the short term but keeping them long-term would be a retreat for the market economy," said Joe Zhou, Head of Research for China at Jones Lang LaSalle  JLL.N .  

    Nonetheless, developers expect the curbs to be longer-term.

    Ouyang Jie, vice-president of Shanghai-listed Future Land  601155.SS , believes the controls will be in place for the next five years, under the new government that follows a leadership reshuffle in the autumn.

    "We think the current restrictions on purchases, borrowing and price growth will continue for five years, but the price cap over new units may be relaxed gradually over the years," he said.

    Analysts say the speculative switch to smaller cities and their large housing overhang has resulted in an alarming rise in debt in those centres.

    Beihai, a small port city in the Guangxi region on China's southwest coast, had the biggest monthly price increase of 1.5 percent in July and posted robust annual growth of 14 percent.

     "I think the small city boom is a trap," JLL's Zhou said. "It won't last long because I don't see the possibility of a huge drop in inventory there while there is not enough population inflow to support demand."

    While the statistics bureau says the housing market should still be able to maintain stable growth, many economists expect the residential sector to lose momentum in the second half of the year in the face of policy tightening and an official financial deleveraging campaign.

    Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.4 percent in July from the previous month, slowing from the 0.7 percent growth in June as policymakers battled to rein in demand.  

    In China's biggest markets, Beijing's new home prices fell 0.1 percent in July, after declining 0.4 percent in June. Shanghai prices stalled while Shenzhen prices fell by 0.2 percent from a month ago.     

    Compared with a year ago, new home prices rose 9.7 percent in July, easing from a 10.2 percent gain in June and marking the slowest growth since August 2016, Reuters calculated from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

    New construction starts measured by floor area, a telling indicator of developers' confidence, contracted for the first time since last September, falling 7 percent in July from a year ago, compared to a 14 percent increase in June.

    Household loans, mostly mortgages, fell to 561.6 billion Chinese yuan ($84.13 billion) in July from 738.4 billion yuan in June, according to Reuters calculations based on central bank data.

    But household loans as a proportion of total new loans rose to 68 percent from 48 percent in June, suggesting banks were more exposed to the property market even though it cooled in July. 


Edited by SHMET

China's national bureau of statistics (NBS) published the output of refined metal in July.

Date Aug 17 2017 15:50:28

China's national bureau of statistics (NBS) published the output of refined metal in July.

Copper rose 1.5 percent year-on-year to 733,000 tonnes.

Zinc fell 6.3 percent year-on-year to 476,000 tonnes.

Lead was up 5.6 percent year-on-year to 432,000 tonnes.

Iron ore production fell 0.2 percent year-on-year to 115 million tonnes.


Edited by SHMET

Tin market records deficit in January to June 2017

Date Aug 17 2017 15:06:25
The tin market recorded a deficit of 7.6 kt during January to June 2017 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose by 1.8 kt during June and ended the period 1.8 kt higher than December 2016. 

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 13 kt, compared with January to June 2016 total. Production in Asia was 14.8 kt higher than the January to June 2016 total. Apparent demand in China was 2.8 percent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to June 2017 was 193.4 kt which was 1.6 percent above the comparable period of 2016. Japanese consumption was 15.2 kt which was 18 percent higher than the comparable total for 2016.

In June 2017, refined production was 31.7 kt and consumption was 34.5 k


Edited by SHMET

Nickel market records deficit in January to June 2017

Date Aug 17 2017 15:05:38

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to June 2017 with apparent demand exceeding production by 60.3 kt. In the whole of 2016 the calculated deficit was 71 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of June 2017 were 0.6 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to June 2017 totalled 813.2 kt and demand was 873.5 kt.

Mine production during January to June was 899 kt, 38 kt below the comparable 2016 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output decreased by 28 kt compared with 2016 and apparent demand was 142 kt lower than in the previous year due to reduced imports of Nickel metal from Russia.

World apparent demand was 84 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In June 2017, nickel smelter/refinery production was 155.8 kt and consumption was 153.4 kt. 

Edited by SHMET

Zinc market records deficit in January to June 2017

Date Aug 17 2017 15:05:05
The zinc market was in deficit by 370 kt during January to June 2017 which compares with a deficit of 223 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 56 kt during June. LME stocks fell by 41 kt in June and ended the month 139 kt lower than at the end of 2016. LME stocks represent 37 percent of the global total. Chinese demand fell by 0.4 percent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China fell by 1.2 percent compared with 2016. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 42 kt in June which brought the year to date figure to 180 kt, 112 kt lower than in January to June 2016. 

Global refined production rose by 1.6 percent and consumption was 4 percent higher than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 266 kt, 15.2 percent above the equivalent total for January to June 2016.

World demand was 270 kt higher than for January to June 2016. Chinese apparent demand was 3240 kt which is just less than 46 percent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In June 2017 slab zinc production was 1149.4 kt and consumption 1205.2 kt. 


Edited by SHMETEdited by SHMET