Statistics

Zinc market records deficit in January to June 2017

Date Aug 17 2017 15:05:05
The zinc market was in deficit by 370 kt during January to June 2017 which compares with a deficit of 223 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 56 kt during June. LME stocks fell by 41 kt in June and ended the month 139 kt lower than at the end of 2016. LME stocks represent 37 percent of the global total. Chinese demand fell by 0.4 percent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China fell by 1.2 percent compared with 2016. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 42 kt in June which brought the year to date figure to 180 kt, 112 kt lower than in January to June 2016. 

Global refined production rose by 1.6 percent and consumption was 4 percent higher than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 266 kt, 15.2 percent above the equivalent total for January to June 2016.

World demand was 270 kt higher than for January to June 2016. Chinese apparent demand was 3240 kt which is just less than 46 percent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In June 2017 slab zinc production was 1149.4 kt and consumption 1205.2 kt. 

Source:WBMS

Edited by SHMETEdited by SHMET

Lead market records deficit in January to June 2017

Date Aug 17 2017 15:04:31
The lead market was in deficit by 195 kt in January to June 2017 which follows a deficit of 172 kt recorded in the whole of 2016. Total stocks at the end of June were 4 kt higher than at the end of 2016. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. 

World refined production during January to June 2017 from both primary and secondary sources was 5877 kt which was 11.5 percent higher than in the comparable months of 2016. Global demand was 706 kt higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 2579 kt of lead in January to June 2017 which was 523 kt above the comparable period in 2016 and represented over 42 percent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has increased by 193 kt for January to June 2017 compared to the first half of 2016.

In June 2017, refined lead production was 990.7 kt and consumption was 1008.9 kt.

Source:WBMS 

Edited by SHMET

Copper market records deficit in January to June 2017

Date Aug 17 2017 15:03:51
The copper market recorded a deficit of 41 kt in January to June 2017 which follows a deficit of 68 kt in the whole of 2016. Reported stocks fell during June and closed 71 kt higher than at the end of December 2016. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to June 2017 was 10.1 million tonnes which was 0.1 percent lower than in the same period in 2016. Global refined production for January to June 2017 was 11.67 million tonnes up 1.6 percent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 329 kt) and a reduction in Chile (down 168 kt).

Global consumption for January to June 2017 was 11.71 million tonnes compared with 11.88 million tonnes for the same months of 2016. Chinese apparent consumption in January to June 2017 fell by 271 kt to 5659 kt compared to the same months of 2016 and represented just over 48 percent of global demand. EU28 production rose by 8 percent and demand was 1715 kt, 3.1 percent below the January to June 2016 total. 

In June 2017, refined copper production was 2016.5 kt and consumption was 2013.4 kt.

Source:WBMS
Edited by SHMET

Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to June 2017

Date Aug 17 2017 15:03:04
The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to June 2017 was a deficit of 1074 kt which follows a deficit of 1097 kt recorded for the whole of 2016. Demand for primary aluminium for January to June 2017 was 30.80 million tonnes 2008 kt more than the first half of 2016. Production in January to June 2017 rose by 1692 kt compared with 2016. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 314 kt during June and at the end of the month were 2033 kt which equated to 13 days’ demand and compares with 2761 kt at the end of 2016. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 1879 kt at the end of June 2017 which was 445 kt below the December 2016 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production rose in January to June 2017 by 6 percent compared with the first six months of 2016. Chinese output was estimated at 16839 kt and this currently accounts for over 56 percent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 10.2 percent higher than 2016. Chinese net exports were 173 kt in January to June and net exports of unwrought aluminium for the whole of 2016 were 255 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China rose from 1841 kt in January to June 2016 to 1955 kt in the first half of 2017.

Production in the EU28 fell by 0.5 percent and NAFTA output fell by 3.3 percent. EU28 demand was 143 kt higher than the comparable 2016 total. Global demand rose by 7 percent during January to June compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In June 2017, primary aluminium production was 5115.3 kt and consumption was 5322.1 kt. 

Source:WBMS
Edited by SHMET

METALS MORNING VIEW – Asian equities rallied, that may reduce fear in the industrial metals

Date Aug 27 2015 09:04:56
Aug.27,2015(SHMET)--

 

The base metals were boosted by China’s interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, which led to average gains of 1.1 percent, led by a 2.1 percent rise in copper to $5,056 – the recovery in confidence led to a strong rebound in equity market, at least initially, but this weighed on bullion prices that saw gold and silver fall 0.7 percent, platinum off 0.5 percent and palladium drop 5.3 percent.

 

This morning, despite a more bullish market in Asia, albeit a volatile one in China, the base metals are off an average of 0.2 percent, led by 0.7 percent falls in copper ($5,022) and zinc, aluminium is off 0.6 percent, lead is off 0.2 percent, while nickel is up 0.2 percent and tin is up 0.7 percent. Volume is stronger at 6,898 lots, indeed it has been stronger all week.

 

Precious metals are mixed, with bullion off around 0.6 percent with gold at $1,136, the PGMs are firmer with platinum up 0.5 percent at $981.90, while palladium is up 2.1 percent at $547, having fallen heavily yesterday.

 

In Shanghai, the base metals are for the most part firmer with average gains of 0.6 percent – nickel is the only metal that is lower today, it is down 0.3 percent, while copper is up 1.7 percent at Rmb 39,200 – copper was by far the strongest metal yesterday too, which again suggests the SRB may be in the market. Spot copper is up 0.5 percent at Rmb 39,250-39,400, the backwardation with the October futures is at an equivalent of $30 per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai arb window is open with the arb ratio at 7.83.

 

Precious metals are weaker in Shanghai with gold off 1.8 percent and silver down 1.2 percent – in other metals, steel rebar is up 0.5 percent and iron ore is steady at $53.45.

 

Equities had a volatile day yesterday – China’s rate cut gave markets a boost that saw the Euro Stoxx 50 close up 4.7 percen, but the Dow was up 2.7 percent at one stage, but then closed down 1.3 percent. In Asia, the tone is firmer again with the CSI 300 up 3.2 percent, the Nikkei is up 2.8 percent, the Hang Seng is up 0.3 percent, the Kospi is up 2.6 percent and the Australian ASX200 is up 0.6 percent. So if the equities have found a footing then that might calm the fears in the base metals, at least for a while, and in turn that could see some bargain hunting emerge – key then will be whether that leads to short-covering.

 

Currencies – the change in recent trends seems to be affecting the currencies too with the dollar rebounding, last at 94.21 after a low on Monday of 92.56, the euro is holding below recent highs, last at 1.1487, as is sterling at 1.5705, the yen is at 119.45, the rouble is at 68.92, but the aussie remains weak at 0.7116. The yuan is last at 6.4852 after a low yesterday of 6.5050, while the other emerging market currencies remain weak.

 

Economic data shows Japan’s Services PPI is firmer at 0.6 percent, later we get UK mortgage approvals, CBI realised sales and US data includes durable goods, crude oil inventories and FOMC member William Dudley is speaking at 1:30 BST.

 

This morning the base metals are consolidating yesterday’s gains, the downward trends dominate and the rebounds are fragile, but if some stability returns to the broader markets then there may be some relief rallies in the base metals. Much will then depend on whether short-covering gains momentum. Yesterday’s LME COTR data showed some short-covering, but it tended to go hand-in-hand with long liquidation so there was selling and buying, but if fear dies down then the short-covering could dominate for a while.

 

Gold rallied on safe-haven buying, if the tide has turned in the other markets then gold is likely to pull back to consolidate. With emerging market currencies still weak and in fear of further devaluation then interest in gold may not fade too much. The more industrial precious metals are also likely to benefit should markets become less fearful.

 

 

 

Overnight Performance                

BST       06:41:31       +/-   +/- %     Lots

Cu  5022      -34  -0.7%     3728

Al    1547      -9    -0.6%     1342

Ni    9585      20   0.2%      657

Zn   1725.5   -12.5      -0.7%     999

Pb   1670      -3.5 -0.2%     162

Sn   14200    100 0.7%      10

Steel     300 0     0.0%      Total

      Average (BM ex-Steel)      -0.2%     6898

Gold       1136      -7.4 -0.6%    

Silver     14.58     -0.1 -0.7%    

Platinum       981.9     4.9  0.5%     

Palladium     547 11   2.1%     

      Average PM       0.3%     

 

 

SHFE Prices 6:45 BST          Change % Change

Cu  39200    650 1.7%

AL 11860    -5    0.0%

Zn   14475    85   0.6%

Pb   13245    165 1.3%

Ni    74940    -250       -0.3%

Sn   101150  310 0.3%

Average change (base metals)      236.5          0.6%

Rebar    1951      10   0.5%

Au   237.1     -4.25      -1.8%

Ag   3361      -41  -1.2%

 

 

Economic Agenda

BST       Country Data      ACTUAL       Expected      Previous

12:50am       JPY SPPI y/y       0.6%      0.4%      0.4%

 9:30am       GBP      BBA Mortgage Approvals       46.0K     44.5K

11:00am       GBP      CBI Realized Sales         19   21

1:30pm  USD      Core Durable Goods Orders m/m       0.3%      0.6%

1:30pm  USD      Durable Goods Orders m/m         -0.4%     3.4%

3:00pm  USD      FOMC Member Dudley Speaks                  

3:30pm  USD      Crude Oil Inventories      1.0M      2.6M

 

 

Edited by SHMET
Page4of318