Statistics

METALS-London copper steady as China nerves eclipse easing impact - RTRS

Date Apr 22 2015 09:08:42
Apr.22,2015(SHMET)--

MELBOURNE, April 21 (Reuters) - London copper was little changed on Tuesday as initial relief following a cut to China's bank reserve requirements was eclipsed by a resumption of worries over its beleaguered property sector.

FUNDAMENTALS

  • Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was flat at $5,980.50 a tonne by 1242 GMT, after 1.2 percent losses from the previous session when it hit a four-week top at $6,173 in the wake of China's cut to reserve requirements that China's banks must keep.
  • The most-traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1 percent to 43,360 yuan ($6,993) a tonne.
  • A cloudy outlook for China's property market continues to loom over its outlook for metals demand. China's drumroll of policy support for its flagging housing market has met an unlikely foe: banks.)
  • Troubled Kaisa Group became on Monday the first Chinese property developer to default on its dollar bonds when it confirmed it had failed to pay a coupon on two senior notes.
  • The European Central Bank is confident that euro zone growth will become more robust and that inflation will return to its medium-term target "without undue delay," ECB President Mario Draghi said.
  • Rio Tinto on Tuesday posted a sharp rise in quarterly iron ore output amid a push to capture more of the global market despite a mounting supply glut driving ore prices to 10-year lows.)

MARKETS NEWS

  • Equity markets rebounded on Monday after China took steps to stimulate its economy and Wall Street also rose on corporate earnings, while the euro weakened further on worries about Greece.

($1 = 6.2005 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Edited by SHMET

Gold price holding above $1,200, oil’s gains support move

Date Apr 17 2015 09:30:09
Apr.17,2015(SHMET)--

The gold price was holding above the key psychological level of $1,200 on Thursday morning, taking support from perceived dollar weakness and a 2015 high in oil prices.

 

The spot gold price of $1,205.20/1,206.00 per ounce was up $3 on Wednesday’s close – it hit an intraday high of $1,209.20 earlier.

 

Precious metals seem to have undergone another period of consolidation and have what look like potential mini-bull-flags on the charts so, with the dollar easing again, we would not be surprised if prices get some more lift,” FastMarkets analyst William Adams said.

 

The dollar has softened after poor production figures out of the US on Wednesday and the IMF’s downgrade to its forecast for US GDP growth in 2015 to 3.1 percent from 3.3 percent.

 

While the greenback has recovered a portion of its losses this morning, it had hit its lowest in a week earlier at 1.0747 against the euro. It was last at 1.0650.

 

Five-month highs in oil prices are also providing a cross-commodities boost, with Brent crude hitting its best since mid-December on Wednesday at $63.44 per barrel on further evidence that US output is slowing.

 

Inventories are off record highs and data suggests that the number of operational oil rigs is down, which have been attributed to low oil prices discouraging exploration and production.

 

Economists and investors continue to speculate that signs of a stuttering economy will compel the Chinese government to provide more stimulus, especially after yesterday’s string of lacklustre data.

 

On Wednesday, quarterly GDP growth was target at seven percent but other economic indicators underperformed market expectations – year-on-year industrial production was at 5.6 percent, much lower than the projected 6.9 percent and below last month’s 6.8 percent.

 

Fixed asset investment was at 13.5 percent, also lower than the forecast of 13.8 percent and retail sales was 0.7 percentage points lower-than-expected at 10.2 percent.

 

Today, foreign direct investment at 10.6 percent was significantly lower than last month’s 16.4 percent.

 

In other data today, the Italian trade balance at 3.54 billion euros was better than expected. Building permits, unemployment claims, housing starts and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are due from the US later.

 

Silver was also higher despite Fresnillo, the world’s largest primary producer, raising production by nearly 19 percent year-on-year in the first quarter to 12.4 million ounces from 10.4 million ounces last year.

 

The company is on track to achieve its 2015 production guidance of 45-47 million ounces of silver and 670,000-685,000 ounces of gold, CEO Octavio Alvidrez said.

 

Silver was last 11 cents higher at $16.40/16.45 per ounce, while platinum was up $6 at $1,163/1,168 and palladium at $766/771 was unchanged.

 

Gold rises on weak dollar, potential Chinese stimulus

The gold price rose in early US trade on Thursday amid a weakening dollar and evidence that Chinese growth is slowing to the point of state intervention.

 

Gold for June delivery was last up $5.10 at $1,206 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trade has ranged narrowly so far from $1,204.3 to $1,208.5.

 

Gold seems to be in a consolidation mode around the $1,200 pivot point, with initial resistance at the 100-day moving average and around $1,212 and the April 7 high of $1,225,” MKS Finance said in daily note.

 

On Wednesday, quarterly Chinese GDP growth was on target at seven percent but other economic indicators underperformed market expectations – year-on-year industrial production was at 5.6 percent, much lower than the projected 6.9 percent and below last month’s 6.8 percent.

 

Today, foreign direct investment at 10.6 percent was significantly lower than last month’s 16.4 percent.

 

Analysts and economics are speculating that slowing Chinese growth could prompt the government to inject additional stimulus.

 

Beijing is expected to deploy further monetary easing and other growth supporting measures in the coming weeks,” HSBC analyst James Steel said.

 

Despite the slowing of growth in the Chinese economy, it is still growing nonetheless, which supports our view of expectations for growing bullion demand in that country on the back of rising income, particularly in the middle to upper middle class,” he added.

 

In the US, unemployment claims rose by 12,000 a seasonally adjusted 294,000 in the week ended April 11, which was modestly worse than the 284,000 forecast.

 

Labour reports have taken on added significance because the Federal Reserve is on the verge of raising interest rates. The current market consensus is that rates will rise in mid-2015 although this is a moving target that will be dictated by jobs and inflation data.

 

US building permits and housing starts at 1.04 million and 930,000 were both short of forecast but both remained around the one-million mark.

 

In other data today, the Italian trade balance at 3.54 billion euros was better than expected.

 

In wider markets, the dollar was 0.47 percent weaker at 1.07335 against the euro, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were down 1.72 percent and 0.64 percent respectively.

 

As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for May delivery was up 15 cents at $16.435 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $16.29 to $16.475.

 

Platinum for June delivery on the Nymex was down $2.60 at $1,151.10 per ounce, while the most actively traded palladium contract was at $772.6, up $5.50.

 

Light sweet crude (WTI) futures were down $1.15 or 2.06 percent at $55.21 per barrel in the most active contract.

 

Edited by SHMET

GOLD PRICE FIRMER ON THE BACK OF THE WEAKER DOLLAR

Date Apr 17 2015 09:29:56
Apr.17,2015(SHMET)--

The gold price closed up 0.8 percent at $1,202.50/oz yesterday, while the precious metals complex climbed an average of 0.7 percent with the weaker dollar helping to underpin the market – the dollar index dropped to 98.40, from 98.78.

 

This morning the precious metals are up 0.2 percent on average with the gold price little changed at $1,203.10.

 

In Shanghai, the June precious metals are stronger with silver up one percent and the gold price up 0.6 percent.

 

Equities – remain upbeat with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.5 percent and the Dow closed up 0.4 percent; in Asia this morning the Nikkei is off 0.2 percent on the back of a firmer yen, the Hang Seng is up 0.2 percent, the CSI 300 is up 2.4 percent as the market anticipates further government stimulus and the Kospi is up 0.8 percent. We wait to see if the likelihood of further stimulus starts to stoke some buying/short-covering in the metals that are lying listless, notably copper and nickel.

 

Currencies the dollar index has rolled over to the downside again last at 98.36 with today (so far) being the third down day – we continue to expect the direction of the dollar, especially on the downside, to be extra influential in the metals given the strength of the dollar over the past year. The euro is firmer at 1.0685, sterling is stronger at 1.4834, as are the yen at 119.32, the aussie at 0.7745, the yuan at 6.1976 and the rouble at 49.28.

 

Economic data out so far shows good EU vehicle registrations data that were up 11 percent in March and up 8.5 percent in the first quarter – these are healthy numbers. China’s foreign direct investment climbed 10.6 percent, after a previous gain of 16.4 percent. There is a host of US data out later including building permits, unemployment claims, housing starts, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, natural gas storage and FOMC members Dennis Lockhart and Stanley Fischer are speaking this evening – see table below for more details.

 

Precious metals seem to have undergone another period of consolidation that look like potential mini-bull-flags on the charts, so with the dollar easing again we would not be surprised to see prices get some more lift.  The good European vehicle registrations data should also help underpin the PGMs.

Overnight Performance

 

 

 

BST

06:34

+/-

+/- %

Lots

Cu

6002.5

40.5

0.7%

2904

Al

1823

4.5

0.2%

811

Ni

12765

85

0.7%

733

Zn

2208

3.5

0.2%

365

Pb

2004

1

0.0%

264

Sn

15900

100

0.6%

45

Steel

395

0

0.0%

Total

Average (BM ex-Steel)

0.4%

5,122

Gold

1203.1

0.6

0.0%

Silver

16.39

0.07

0.4%

Platinum

1162.9

3.9

0.3%

Palladium

767.4

-1.6

-0.2%

 

Average PM

 

0.2%

 

SHFE prices 06:51  BST

Change

% Change

Cu

43420

530

1.2%

AL

13135

75

0.6%

Zn

16550

175

1.1%

Pb

13255

155

1.2%

Ni

95470

1500

1.6%

Sn

113260

-270

-0.2%

Average change (base metals)

 

 

0.9%

Rebar

2295

-2

-0.1%

Au

241.8

1.55

0.6%

Ag

3550

35

1.0%

 

 

 

Economic Agenda

 

 

 

BST

Country

Data

ACTUAL

Expected

Previous

4:00am

China

Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y

10.6%

16.4%

7:00am

EU

New Vehicle regisrations (Mar)

11.0%

 9:00am

Italy

Italian Trade Balance

1.21B

0.22B

Tentative

Spain

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

1.23|1.9

Day 1

ALL

G20 Meetings

1:30pm

US

Building Permits

1.08M

1.10M

1:30pm

US

Unemployment Claims

284K

281K

1:30pm

US

Housing Starts

1.05M

0.90M

3:00pm

US

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

6.5

5

3:30pm

US

Natural Gas Storage

52B

15B

6:00pm

US

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

8:00pm

US

FOMC Member Fischer Speaks



 

Edited by SHMET

Mumbai gold premium moves higher despite surge in imports in March

Date Apr 08 2015 09:12:06
Apr.08,2015(SHMET)--

The premium for gold in Mumbai has increased despite huge inflows of metal in March, with demand said to be growing ahead of the key festival of Akshaya Tritiya.

 

The rate on gold for immediate delivery in the Indian capital has moved up to around $2-3 over the London spot price from around $1 in the previous week.

 

Demand has picked up, jewellers are already busy and are still stocking ahead of the most auspicious day of the year to buy gold,” Metals Focus’ Chirag Sheth told FastMarkets.

 

There may not be much action on the premium side, but demand is definitely picking up,” he added.

 

Rumours that as much as 100 tonnes of gold may have entered the country in March are gaining weight, with the latest indications suggesting that figure may be as high as 120 tonnes, though these will remain unconfirmed until the official estimations in mid-April.

 

However, sources said that this figure is realistically closer to 90-100 tonnes, discounting the large amount of dorè that comes into the country every month, which also contains large amounts of silver, but may feature in official estimations.

 

Also aiding demand is news that the government is providing relief packages to farmers, who have been affected by unseasonal hailstorms in North and West India at the start of March. Smaller harvests weigh on gold demand, as India’s 120 million farmers account for around 60 percent of domestic consumption.

 

Still, Sheth says that with damage now assessed, demand is unlikely to be affected in coming weeks, particularly as the country enters its annual monsoon season – which is forecasted to be ‘normal’.

 

Elsewhere, the onshore premium for gold in Shanghai was muted, sources said. Gold for immediate delivery in Shanghai was quoted at $3.50 over spot, with demand said to have been stable in light of the recent gains in prices over the $1,200 per ounce mark.

 

Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange – a useful barometer for local wholesale demand – for the week ending March 27 were 45.72 tonnes, down from 53 tonnes in the week prior. More than 600 tonnes have passed through the vaults in 2015 so far.

 

In Tokyo, the premium remains around 50 cents over the spot price, with demand seeing no significant change, despite the higher price on international markets. One source did however suggest that there has been a mild increase in scrap metal returning to the market in light of the price moving to two-month highs.

 

The Turkish market is showing signs of opening up, with some transactions this morning moving out of the discount territory and into small premiums of around 50 cents on the favoured .995 LBMA 1kg bar, according to Troy Precious Metals GoldTakas system. The wedding season is now around one month away, where demand is expected to pick up – typically premiums of $2-3 are expected, Troy told FastMarkets.

 

In Dubai, premiums have contracted somewhat in light of the higher price – this morning local jewellers quoted the four nine and 995 bars at a $0.25 cents premium.

 

In other locations, Hong Kong sources pegged the premium at $1.50 over spot, in Singapore around $1.50 and in Bangkok around $2.

 

Edited by SHMET

Metal prices higher on better Chinese PMI data and a slightly weaker dollar – METALS MORNING VIEW

Date Apr 02 2015 09:24:57
Apr.02,2015(SHMET)--

Key note  – Chinese manufacturing PMI better than expected

 

Recap of yesterday

 

The base metals remained under pressure with average losses of 1.5 percent – the firmer dollar continued to weigh on prices as did the rout in nickel and tin. Nickel was down 4.1 percent at the day’s lows at $12,340, while tin was off 2.1 percent at $16,520. Copper traded down to $6,007, before closing at $6,019.50 – this was despite Enami declaring force majeure on copper shipments due to recent flooding.

 

This morning

 

The base metals are up an average of 0.5 percent with all bar tin in positive territory with nickel leading on the upside with 1.3 percent gain $12,510. Earlier nickel had fallen to set a fresh low of $12,310. Tin was off 0.2 percent at $16,535, while the rest were up between 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent with copper at $6,050. Volume has been light with a total of 3,308 lots traded by 06:00 BST, with 1,302 lots of copper and 1160 lots of nickel.

 

Shanghai Metals

 

The June base metals contracts are mixed, but generally weaker by an average of 0.6 percent, led by a 2.8 percent fall in nickel, copper is off 0.8 percent at Rmb 43,430, zinc is off 0.6 percent, while lead is unchanged, aluminium is up 0.1 percent and tin is up 0.6 percent.

 

Spot copper in Changjiang is off 0.5 percent at Rmb 43,350-43,500, the spread is either side of level, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 1 to 7.18, which means the arb window in closed.

 

Other markets

 

Equities – yesterday saw the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Dow close lower by 0.8 percent and 1.1 percent respectively. Asia has been mixed with the Nikkei off 0.4 percent, the Hang Seng is up 0.7 percent, the CSI 300 is up 1.6 percent and the Kospi is off 0.6 percent. Better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI has helped underpin Chinese markets.

 

Currencies – the dollar’s rebound of late has halted with the dollar index last at 98.11 after yesterday’s rebound peak of 98.68. The euro is consolidating, last at 1.0780, sterling is edging higher at 1.4857, as is the aussie at 0.7630, the yen is weaker at 119.96, the rouble and yuan are last at 57.75 and 6.2000. Other emerging currencies, notably the real, rand, rupee and rupiah, are all firmer, which suggests the dollar’s rebound may have run its course for a while – this might well support the metals.

 

Economic Agenda

 

There is a barrage of manufacturing PMI data out across Europe and the US, plus US ADP non-farm employment change, construction spending, crude oil inventories and total vehicle sales. In addition, FOMC members John Williams and Dennis Lockhart are speaking – see table below for more details. Data already out showed Japan’s Tankan report matching or beating previous readings, its manufacturing PMI was 50.3, Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 (state reading) and the HSBC reading of 49.6 was above the expected reading of 49.3.

 

Near term view

 

The base metals are looking slightly firmer this morning and we think that is on the combination of nickel and tin having been oversold, a turn down in the dollar and the PMI data. We still feel that the dollar is an important driver in the base metals at present as the rebound of late had dampened the earlier show of strength that was seen after the March FOMC statement. Nickel seems to have been hit by fresh short selling in recent days judging by yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report, which seems to have prompt distress selling too. At these levels a lot of producers of all types must be underwater so we are on the lookout for a rebound. Copper, lead, zinc and aluminium, have held up relatively well in recent days, so seem well placed to edge higher, especially if we see some dollar weakness. Good EU PMI data might alos lift spirits as we enter the second quarter.


Overnight Performance

 

 

 

BST

06:02

+/-

+/- %

Lots

Cu

6050

30.5

0.5%

1302

Al

1790

5

0.3%

404

Ni

12510

160

1.3%

1160

Zn

2089

8.5

0.4%

232

Pb

1826.5

8

0.4%

180

Sn

16535

-35

-0.2%

30

Steel

395

0

0.0%

Total

Average (BM ex-Steel)

0.5%

3,308

Gold

1187.5

4.6

0.4%

Silver

16.71

0.09

0.5%

Platinum

1141.9

2.9

0.3%

Palladium

734.9

1.9

0.3%

Average PM

 

0.4%

SHFE prices 06:17  BST

Change

% Change

Cu

43430

-340

-0.8%

AL

13385

10

0.1%

Zn

15945

-95

-0.6%

Pb

12400

5

0.0%

Ni

93260

-2690

-2.8%

Sn

118500

710

0.6%

Average change (base metals)

 

 

-0.6%

Rebar

2403

-23

-0.9%

Au

238.95

-0.05

0.0%

Ag

3572

-16

-0.4%

 

 

Economic Agenda

 

 

 

BST

Country

Data

ACTUAL

Expected

Previous

12:50am

Japan

Tankan Manufacturing Index

12

14

12

12:50am

Japan

Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

19

17

16

2:00am

China

Manufacturing PMI

50.1

49.7

49.9

2:00am

China

Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.9

2:35am

Japan

Final Manufacturing PMI

50.3

50.4

50.4

2:45am

China

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

49.6

49.3

49.2

8:15am

Spain

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

54

54.2

8:45am

Italy

Italian Manufacturing PMI

52.2

51.9

9:00am

EU

Final Manufacturing PMI

51.9

51.9

9:30am

UK

Manufacturing PMI

54.5

54.1

1:15pm

US

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

227K

212K

2:00pm

US

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

2:45pm

US

Final Manufacturing PMI

55.3

55.3

3:00pm

US

ISM Manufacturing PMI

52.5

52.9

3:00pm

US

Construction Spending m/m

-0.1%

-1.1%

3:00pm

US

ISM Manufacturing Prices

38.1

35

3:30pm

US

Crude Oil Inventories

4.2M

8.2M

3:30pm

US

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

All Day

US

Total Vehicle Sales

16.7M

16.2M

Edited by SHMET
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